The "degree" of a correction is dependent on where we are in a particular cycle, and is based on BOTH time and price.

A 40% drop that recovers in 5-6 months, after which we make new ATH's is not the same as an 85% drop that takes three years to recover from.

The former, despite it's depth, was just a larger correction within a bull market (imo), because the trend resumed to the upside some months later.

This makes it distinctly different from a correction that is 70+%, which lasts for 2 years, or a correction that is 80+%, that lasts for 5 years. Both of those would be corrections of a larger "degree".

The "bear markets" that happen AFTER a blow off top are always the most brutal, usually both in time and price. Everything else is usually a correction of a "smaller degree".

For example, in the chart below:

The two "bear markets" that followed blow off tops are marked in ORANGE, and these were the most devastating both in terms of price and time. Each dropped 85% from the highs and took 1100+ days to recover to new highs from.

The two "bear markets" in BLUE were both "mid-cycle corrections", still pretty deep at 70-75% depth, but both recovered back to new highs in a shorter amount of time (500-800 days).

All the smaller corrections in RED are corrections of an even smaller degree than the blue or orange. These lasted for a number of weeks or months, with the longest lasting around 240 days until new highs, and corrected anywhere between 20% to 40%.

Some people may call every "deep" correction over X% a "bear market" but that leaves out a ton of important context because not all "bear markets" are the same and you shouldn't position the same way during every "bear market" either.

Some are just aggressive shakeouts in a stronger up-trend where you would want to be buying the dip while some are corrections of a much higher "degree" where it probably makes more sense to sit on your hands and wait.

I've seen some on here argue that we are in a "bear market" but are now saying they believe we are close to the end of it and they are looking to "buy the dip".

Was this really a "bear market" if we were at all time highs literally just 3 months ago and you expect us to see new highs soon?

The degree of the correction matters more than the verbiage. What some might call a "bear market" may be what others simply call a "deep correction" within a larger uptrend.

Like all things in markets there is a LOT of nuance, it is not as simple as "are we in a bear market?"

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"Are we in a bear market?"

This is kind of the issue with the arguments about if we are in a "bear market" or not.

Everyone's definition is literally different.

If the logic is that "X% of correction = bear market" then by that definition we had 6 "bear markets" in the 2 year span of 2015-2017 as we rose from $200-$20,000.

I don't consider the 6 "corrections" in 2017 as different, distinct, "bear markets" because most of them only lasted a few weeks before continuation to new highs.

Just as there are smaller cycles within larger cycles, there are different degrees of "corrections" within any larger secular bull trend.

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So far this rally off the lows has all the makings of a healthy/sustainable one.

Shorts covering which is sending OI down a we rise but the rise is also backed by a strong spot bid, which seems to have caused spot premium to rise and funding to become increasingly negative off the lows.

As long as these conditions remain I think we probs keep climbing higher over the coming days.

This is the exact type of PA we would want to see if our most bullish scenario from my recent $BTC video update has a chance of playing out.

Recommend watching if you haven't yet .

33595

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Part 2 of my market update is now LIVE!

This one focuses SPECIFICALLY on altcoins including $CRV, $ETH, $TRAC, $HBAR, $XRP, $SOL, $QNT, and $AAVE but also gives you a general framework with which to evaluate ANY altcoin.

If you haven't seen Part 1 yet, which focuses exclusively on Bitcoin, I recommend watching that first. Links to BOTH parts will be posted below 👇

Part 1 (Bitcoin): youtu.be/xVxjLxyAXWQ
Part 2 (Altcoins): youtu.be/OqRP9QqGjxQ

Likes always appreciated.

35088

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This seems like a novel concept for some, but:

If someone shares an idea about the market that makes sense to you, you might decide to act on it.

If someone shares an idea about the market that doesn't make sense to you, you logically will not act on it.

Either way, you have to evaluate every idea presented and ultimately make a decision based on what makes the most sense to you- we aren't going to make any decisions for you and we gain nothing from you agreeing with our perspective or not.

If you decide to make a decision after evaluating numerous theses and find one that you believe makes the most sense- then take responsibility for the outcome- good or bad.

At the end of the day, we share free content- if you agree with the ideas presented, fantastic.

If you don't, great.

If you still find value in the content shared despite not always agreeing with it- feel free to continue to follow along, we are happy to have you.

But if you don't find any value in the free content we share, no one is forcing you to stick around. You may get enjoyment spending your time trolling on the internet, but it's a waste of my time engaging with that, so don't be surprised if you end up blocked with this approach 🤷‍♂️

45449

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The first test of the largest/most significant cluster of consolidation of our entire rise from 15k-126k (after we front-ran it in April of last year).

We spent over 8 months consolidating in this range last year before eventually breaking out.

Would be very surprised if it doesn't offer some relief on $BTC.

Recommend watching my new Youtube update (pinned tweet) for further context.

45254

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A good time to repost this now that 74k has been broken and we are seeing one of the more violent corrections on $BTC that we have seen in a long time.

A few things I think it's important to remember during times like this:

FIRST: Panicking and reacting emotionally is never going to help things. I've been through every major correction/downturn since 2017 and some of them have been pretty damn bad. At the end of the day, none of them led to "the end of crypto" and this one isn't going to do that either. Focus on the charts, not narratives, and analyze the situation as you would under "normal" circumstances, letting technicals guide your decisions rather than emotion.

SECOND: It's worth pointing out- that even in 2017, we fell 50% from our highs in a single week- the most devastating correction we had ever seen in the history of Bitcoin (at that time). During this 50% drop, total altcoin marketcap ALSO fell 50% in this same window, meaning alts took a hit on the way down with BTC as well. However, after $BTC hit 10k and saw a 50% deadcat bounce- altcoin marketcap didn't just bounce 50% back it literally went on to make new ATH's, going 3x off the lows and sending many alts up 5x, 10x or even more. So don't assume that this large correction means your "alts are dead". Bottomed out alts are still bottomed out, and this correction doesn't change that.

THIRD: While people may agree or disagree on what constitutes a "cycle top" or a "bear market, one thing pretty much everyone I think agrees on is that parabolic, blow off tops lead to the largest, most devastating corrections when they complete- and we did not get a blow off top in the current instance. Which means, this ensuing correction- while brutal, could have been significantly worse, and likely won't be nearly as bad as many are saying it will be (that is the fear, panic and emotions talking).

So, keep calm, don't panic, read the post below and watch my latest Youtube vid (pinned tweet) if you'd like to see some potential ways this correction may resolve (also tune in for Part 2 on alts which will be released soon) and let the market settle before jumping to conclusions/decisions that you may regret later.

44795

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Part 1, which focuses specifically on Bitcoin should be live on my Youtube channel within the next 12 hours or so.

Part 2, which focuses exclusively on alts, should be live within the next 24 hours or so.

Thank you for your patience!

49639

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Just completed 1.5 hours of video content for "Part 2" which focuses exclusively on alt coins.

In total, that's 3.5 hours of content I've just recorded for you all today, which will be shared, as always, for free here and on Youtube within the coming days.

All I ask for in return is your patience as my editing team works to make it presentable and your support when I release this content in the coming days.

Will keep you guys posted on the progress 🫡

49678

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The answer is YES, a HTF accumulation bottom is a "universal" structure that can be applied to ANY market HOWEVER, when it comes to crypto you have to make sure you're looking at a chart with COMPLETE price history.

For example, if you look at the complete chart history of $QNT this is what you see:

1. First off, we don't have an accumulation base with a deviation and reclaim of range lows- so already this is not the same structure as something like $CRV.

2. When looking at complete price history we can see QNT went from $1.40 in 2020 to over $430+ at it's peak just 1 year later, an over 300x rally off of it's bottom already, just in the last 5 years. Compare this to something like CRV that is still AT that same bottom over the last 5 years, not 50x above it.

3. $QNT is still "digesting" its 400x move and currently forming a "neutral" consolidation structure, which could theoretically break either way, rather than a bullish accumulation base at macro range lows.

4. $QNT has HTF support in the green zone right now but you can see we've been testing it for essentially the entire consolidation. This is very reminiscent of $BTC at the 6-12k consolidation before our breakdown to 3k back in 2018.

If I had to analyze this chart, I would expect one of two of the paths below to play out- meaning, ultimately, I would not be too interested in QNT until/unless we hit $15 ish.

This is why it's important to make sure you are seeing complete price history of any given asset.

49677

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