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TotalEnergies Sees LNG Prices Moving Higher as Iran War Squeezes Supply

TotalEnergies says LNG prices are set to move higher as the Iran conflict tightens supply, with the company reporting a 38% year-on-year surge in LNG sales in Q3. The backdrop is already a strong gas market: global gas prices have reached four-year highs, and the company expects pricing to average above $14 in Q4.

The immediate read-through is straightforward. Any disruption risk linked to the Middle East raises the premium on flexible LNG, especially as buyers seek supply security into winter and traders reprice prompt cargo availability. A 38% jump in LNG sales also suggests that portfolio players with trading optionality are well positioned to capture volatility when physical supply is constrained and regional price spreads widen.

For the market, this is another signal that geopolitical risk is feeding directly into LNG pricing and keeping the near-term bias skewed to the upside.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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🇬🇦 BW Energy pulls 2026 capex guidance after rig sinking delays Gabon drilling

BW Energy has suspended its 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $600 million-$650 million after the Prospector 5 jackup, owned and operated by Borr Drilling, sank offshore Gabon on Oct. 24 during preparations for the MaBoMo Phase 2 campaign at Dussafu. Production from the MaBoMo facility was shut in as a precaution before the rig moved into the safety perimeter, but no damage was reported and output resumed on Oct. 28. A planned well workover will now be shifted to a hydraulic workover unit that BW Energy aims to mobilize in the coming months.

The immediate issue is timing rather than resource loss. BW said it is too early to say when Phase 2 drilling will restart, while it reassesses how to integrate the remaining MaBoMo Phase 2 wells into the broader Dussafu program. Early campaign appraisal wells had already added 8 million-9 million bbl of recoverable volumes, with each new well expected to produce around 5,000 bopd gross initially and the five-well campaign designed to add up to 20,000 bopd gross at peak. But Dussafu net production still fell to 16,800 bopd in Q3 from 19,300 bopd, mainly due to an ESP failure, pulling group net output to 21,500 bopd and forcing 2026 guidance down to about 23,000 bopd from the low end of 24,000-27,000 bopd.

For Gabon, the incident underlines how a single offshore asset disruption can quickly hit capex visibility, production guidance and the timing of incremental barrels even when the underlying resource base remains intact.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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🇨🇦 Shell to take 30% stake in Equinor's Bay du Nord oil project in Canada

Equinor and Shell have signed an agreement under which Shell will acquire a 30% interest in the Bay du Nord project offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, the companies said on Friday. The deal brings another major into one of Canada’s most closely watched offshore oil developments, with Equinor retaining its role in a project that has been seen as strategically important for Atlantic Canada supply growth.

The immediate read-through is that Bay du Nord gains additional commercial backing from a supermajor at a time when upstream capital discipline remains tight and project quality matters more than volume for volume’s sake. For the market, that matters less as an immediate barrels story and more as a signal that long-cycle offshore oil with access to Atlantic Basin export routes is still attracting capital from large incumbents when the resource and logistics case is strong enough.

The signal is constructive for Canada’s offshore sector and for confidence around future non-OPEC supply optionality, even if the impact on near-term crude balances is negligible.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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🇺🇸 Valero to buy shuttered Houston refinery and bring back 165,000 b/d by end-2027

Valero Refining-Texas has agreed to acquire the former LyondellBasell Houston refinery for $320.5 million and plans to restart 165,000 b/d of light sweet crude processing by yearend 2027. The deal includes about 700 acres on the Houston Ship Channel adjacent to Valero’s existing Houston refinery, 13.5 million bbl of storage, marine docks, rail-loading facilities, and truck racks. Closing is expected by yearend, subject to customary conditions.

The asset was part of LyondellBasell’s 268,000-b/d Houston refinery, which the company decided to exit in April 2022 and ultimately shuttered in March 2025 after delays. For Valero, the logic is less about headline refining capacity than system optimization across the US Gulf Coast: the company says the acquisition will ease intermediate feedstock shortages, cut reliance on third-party purchases, boost FCC and hydrocracker feed production, and use excess hydrotreating capacity to upgrade intermediates from other Gulf Coast refineries. CEO Lane Riggs also said the site could support future investment in heavy sour crude processing, though no timetable or capital figures were disclosed.

This is a classic Gulf Coast adjacency trade: Valero is buying logistics, storage, and optionality first, and restoring crude runs second.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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🇦🇪 Oil spills from Iran’s tanker attacks wash up on UAE beaches

Oil pollution linked to tanker attacks attributed to Iran in the Strait of Hormuz has washed up on UAE beaches, according to the report. The snippet says Tehran has stepped up strikes on vessels over the past month, leaving a visible trail of contamination from a security escalation in one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints.

The immediate market read is not about lost barrels confirmed in the headline, but about rising shipping risk in Hormuz. A sustained pattern of attacks increases pressure on tanker routing, insurance, freight costs and operational caution for crude and products moving out of the Gulf. Even without a declared supply outage, repeated disruptions in the waterway can tighten prompt market sentiment by raising the cost and uncertainty of moving cargoes.

For oil, the signal is that geopolitical risk in Hormuz is becoming more tangible, with physical pollution on UAE shores underlining that maritime insecurity is no longer an abstract premium.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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🇮🇷 Iran warns it will retaliate without geographical limitations if attacked

Ayatollah Khamenei told Iranian military commanders that any response to an attack would be immediate and without geographical limitations, according to the report. The warning comes as Qatari mediators try to head off a feared US-Israeli bombing campaign, putting the risk of direct escalation back at the center of the regional security picture.

For oil and LNG, the message is straightforward: the market has to price not only the probability of a strike, but the possibility of a wider retaliatory arc across the region. That raises the geopolitical premium on Middle East crude and on gas-linked shipping routes, especially if traders judge that retaliation could extend beyond a purely bilateral exchange and affect regional infrastructure, tanker movements, or maritime security.

The immediate signal is higher headline risk for energy and freight markets, with any further move from Washington, Tel Aviv, Tehran, or Doha likely to be watched through the lens of supply disruption risk.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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European Gas Tops 101 Euros for First Time Since 2022

European gas prices moved above 101 euros per MWh for the first time since 2022, even with storage near 75%. The immediate trigger in the available details is the ongoing LNG force majeure in Qatar, which is tightening marginal supply and overwhelming what would normally be seen as a relatively comfortable storage position.

The market signal is straightforward: storage alone is not capping prices when prompt LNG availability is in question. If Qatari disruption persists, Europe has to keep paying up for flexible cargoes, and that supports both front-end gas pricing and wider competition for seaborne LNG. In that setup, inventories near 75% look less like a cushion and more like a floor under panic buying risk if supply uncertainty extends.

For the market, 101 euros per MWh is a clear sign that LNG supply security has again become the dominant price driver in Europe.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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🇯🇵 Japan to Overtake China As World's Top LNG Importer This Year

Japan is set to overtake China as the world’s top LNG importer this year, according to ICIS and Kpler. The shift is being driven by high LNG prices and full gas storage in China, which are curbing Chinese spot buying and reducing import appetite.

The immediate read for the LNG market is not a sudden surge in Japanese demand, but a relative weakening in Chinese pull. When China steps back because inventories are comfortable and prices are too high, the spot market loses a key marginal buyer. That can ease competition for discretionary cargoes into North Asia, even if Japan moves back into the number one position on annual import rankings.

For traders, the key signal is that China’s storage buffer and price sensitivity are again shaping Asian LNG balances as much as outright demand growth.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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ExxonMobil deepens LNG exposure in Mozambique and Papua New Guinea

ExxonMobil said on Oct. 30 it agreed to raise its working interest in Mozambique’s Rovuma LNG to 50% and in Papua LNG in Papua New Guinea to 34%. The company already operates Rovuma and has now assumed operatorship at Papua LNG. It did not disclose counterparties or deal terms. In the same third-quarter 2026 update, ExxonMobil reported cumulative production milestones of 1 Bbbl in Guyana and at the Kearl oil sands project in Canada, plus 100 million tons from PNG LNG. Upstream production averaged 4.496 MMboed in 3Q, versus 4.514 MMboed in 2Q.

The move sharpens ExxonMobil’s control over two large Pacific and East African LNG positions at a time when the company says year-to-date upstream earnings were supported by volume growth from Guyana, the Permian and Golden Pass LNG, partly offset by Middle East volume impacts. Versus the second quarter, upstream earnings fell on lower prices and an accelerated Guyana entitlement impact. The broader message from the quarter is clear: ExxonMobil is leaning harder into operated LNG and long-cycle resource positions even as it balances softer near-term pricing. Third-quarter earnings came in at $15.4 billion, and the company outlined $20 billion of share repurchases for 2027.

Greater equity and operatorship in Rovuma and Papua LNG strengthens ExxonMobil’s hand across the next wave of LNG supply while Guyana continues to underpin the cash engine behind that expansion.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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