"For Adam was formed first, then Eve."

30

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Decent move since I originally shared the $ZRO chart and now we are getting the first significant pullback.

Nice clean bullish OB here that should hold as support for continuation to our final target/range highs at $3.70.

A great entry if you weren't able to catch one earlier.

7439

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A year later, and the calls for "no altseason" have only grown louder.

Meanwhile, $BTC dominance is trading 3% lower.

Yes, no blow off top on $BTC yet means we may still get one- sending dominance up one final time before it completely breaks down- however, if the BTC top is in and a blow-off top is not going to come, then we will see BTC dominance break down sooner rather than later imo.

Alts have not begun their major runs yet- when they do, you will see this reflected very clearly on the BTC dominance chart.

7444

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"Buy low sell high"
"Be greedy when others are fearful"
"Buy the blood"

Everyone agrees with all the mantras above until it's actually time to take action- then they do the literal opposite.

7488

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"...for the first time- there is a possibility that our 5 wave move off of 15k has completed. There are other possibilities as well, but will cover those more extensively if we do ever break 74k..."

With 74k breached, I've covered all these other scenarios for $BTC in a new Youtube video (link in pinned tweet).

Both bullish and bearish scenarios are currently on the table, and we will only know more with developing PA, but I recommend watching that vid now to get an idea of what may be in store in the coming weeks/months.

8135

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If you bang on the door hard enough, eventually it will break... $CRV

For a more detailed update on $CRV, watch my latest Youtube vid update (pinned tweet).

14489

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Ultimately, $ETH is simply in a massive range since 2021 that I am pretty confident will break to the upside.

There are still a lot of uncertainties and the above scenario is only logical if $BTC is forming a bottom in the current HTF zone it is in (which I think is certainly possible), but I will of course re-evaluate if/when we are presented with new info. For now, continuing to watch how PA develops from here.

14419

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ETH/BTC still holding nicely above our ultimate target in the HTF green zone above.

As covered in my newest update vid (pinned tweet), the path in the chart above is still my primary expectation (visiting HTF supply above first), but ultimately, whenever we get to the HTF zone in green below, I think $ETH will make for a solid buy on the USD pairing.

Assuming we do visit the untapped supply above first, would expect something like the chart below on the USD pairing.

14393

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The "degree" of a correction is dependent on where we are in a particular cycle, and is based on BOTH time and price.

A 40% drop that recovers in 5-6 months, after which we make new ATH's is not the same as an 85% drop that takes three years to recover from.

The former, despite it's depth, was just a larger correction within a bull market (imo), because the trend resumed to the upside some months later.

This makes it distinctly different from a correction that is 70+%, which lasts for 2 years, or a correction that is 80+%, that lasts for 5 years. Both of those would be corrections of a larger "degree".

The "bear markets" that happen AFTER a blow off top are always the most brutal, usually both in time and price. Everything else is usually a correction of a "smaller degree".

For example, in the chart below:

The two "bear markets" that followed blow off tops are marked in ORANGE, and these were the most devastating both in terms of price and time. Each dropped 85% from the highs and took 1100+ days to recover to new highs from.

The two "bear markets" in BLUE were both "mid-cycle corrections", still pretty deep at 70-75% depth, but both recovered back to new highs in a shorter amount of time (500-800 days).

All the smaller corrections in RED are corrections of an even smaller degree than the blue or orange. These lasted for a number of weeks or months, with the longest lasting around 240 days until new highs, and corrected anywhere between 20% to 40%.

Some people may call every "deep" correction over X% a "bear market" but that leaves out a ton of important context because not all "bear markets" are the same and you shouldn't position the same way during every "bear market" either.

Some are just aggressive shakeouts in a stronger up-trend where you would want to be buying the dip while some are corrections of a much higher "degree" where it probably makes more sense to sit on your hands and wait.

I've seen some on here argue that we are in a "bear market" but are now saying they believe we are close to the end of it and they are looking to "buy the dip".

Was this really a "bear market" if we were at all time highs literally just 3 months ago and you expect us to see new highs soon?

The degree of the correction matters more than the verbiage. What some might call a "bear market" may be what others simply call a "deep correction" within a larger uptrend.

Like all things in markets there is a LOT of nuance, it is not as simple as "are we in a bear market?"

33513

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"Are we in a bear market?"

This is kind of the issue with the arguments about if we are in a "bear market" or not.

Everyone's definition is literally different.

If the logic is that "X% of correction = bear market" then by that definition we had 6 "bear markets" in the 2 year span of 2015-2017 as we rose from $200-$20,000.

I don't consider the 6 "corrections" in 2017 as different, distinct, "bear markets" because most of them only lasted a few weeks before continuation to new highs.

Just as there are smaller cycles within larger cycles, there are different degrees of "corrections" within any larger secular bull trend.

33542

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