Hormuz flows hold despite surge in tanker attacks

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has remained surprisingly resilient even as Iranian attacks intensified sharply in October. As of Oct. 27, at least 30 vessels, mostly oil tankers, were hit this month, with a minimum of 16 seafarers injured, according to IMO data. That is double September’s 15 confirmed incidents and the highest monthly toll of the war. Even so, crude exports through Hormuz averaged nearly 11.1 million bpd in October, down just 2% from September, while Brent climbed more than 13% this month to above $117 a barrel, just below the wartime closing high of $118.35 seen in March.

The contrast with March is stark. After Tehran began attacking commercial ships within 24 hours of the U.S. and Israel going to war with Iran, crude exports through Hormuz plunged nearly 90% to 1.8 million bpd from 16 million bpd in February. Flows have since recovered as U.S. military protection improved transit security and shipowners adapted operating models. One key workaround is a shuttle system: tankers load at Gulf ports, cross Hormuz with transponders switched off, then transfer cargoes to ships waiting in the Gulf of Oman for delivery to Asian refiners. Kpler says this helped lift flows more than 70% since July, but at the cost of higher freight, more tonnage tied up and significantly more complex logistics.

The market signal is clear: Iran can still raise the risk premium and disrupt daily flows, but for now it has not restored the systemic supply shock it triggered in March.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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Sketch commission done for Jykinturah

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