⚽️ FIFA World Cup Lift — Major events such as the FIFA World Cup have provided an additional lift to economic activity across many regions, with travel, hospitality, and consumer spending benefitting from the tournament. This is offering a partial offset to the macro headwinds facing global markets and a reminder that not all the second-half news flow is negative. We wrote an article about it: https://newsletter.kintsugiinvesting.com/p/the-world-cup-playbook

Source: CNBC, AP
Summarized by: Market Quickies by KI (https://tinyurl.com/marketquickies)

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📅 Market Updates (6th July to 10th July 2026)

📉 Soft Jobs Report Changes the Conversation — Last Thursday's June nonfarm payrolls came in at just 57,000, well below the 110,000–170,000 consensus, with May's figure also revised down sharply from 172,000 to 129,000. The prior two months were revised down by a combined 74K, giving the Fed more room to be patient on any potential rate hikes. The silver lining: the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, and wage gains of 3.5% year-over-year were in line with expectations, keeping the "Goldilocks" narrative just about intact.

🏛 FOMC Minutes — The Week's Defining Event: Wednesday's release of the minutes from the Fed's June meeting is the key event of the week, with market participants seeking clarity and additional signals on the US central bank's monetary policy outlook. After the soft jobs print, the probability of a rate hike at the July FOMC has dropped to 20% from 30% last week, while the theoretical 100% probability of a rate hike remains at the December FOMC meeting. A dovish tone in the minutes could fuel a risk rally; a hawkish tone could reignite dollar strength.

🤖 Semiconductor Selloff Deepens — The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) is down nearly 7% on Friday alone and over 12% across the past two days, as an almost 8% overnight drop in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), where tech and memory giants SK Hynix and Samsung account for over 50% of the index, dragged chip stocks globally. The SOX has broken through its 20-day moving average support, shifting the near-term technical picture bearish for the sector.

🥤 PepsiCo Earnings — Consumer Health Check: PepsiCo reports on Thursday, July 9, making it one of the first major consumer staples companies to report this earnings season. With consumer confidence coming in below expectations last week at 91.2 versus the 93.9 estimate, investors will look to Pepsi's volumes and pricing power for a read on whether the American consumer is starting to buckle under the weight of persistent inflation.

👖 Levi Strauss in the Spotlight — Levi Strauss reports on Wednesday, July 8, offering a window into discretionary consumer spending and tariff-related cost pressures. With North American tariffs still squeezing apparel margins industry-wide, guidance on pricing strategy and demand trends will be closely watched.

🛢 Oil — Iran Talks Resume in Doha: WTI crude is trading around $68.73, and investors are focused on the resumption of talks between the US and Iran in Doha aimed at reaching a peace agreement. This week, high volatility in crude prices is expected with the release of API weekly inventory data, the IEA's monthly oil report, and the FOMC minutes all landing in the same week. Any breakdown in the Doha talks could swiftly reverse oil's recent declines.

🇨🇳 China CPI — Deflationary Pressures Persist: China's CPI data lands on Thursday, with recent readings hovering near flat or negative territory year-on-year. Persistent deflation in the world's second-largest economy is a double-edged sword, it keeps a lid on global goods inflation but also signals weak domestic demand, with knock-on effects for commodity exporters and emerging markets.

🇯🇵 Yen Crisis Watch — The yen broke through its weakest level in almost 40 years last week, depreciating to around JPY 162.5 against the US dollar, before rising sharply on Thursday amid heightened speculation that Japanese authorities could intervene in the foreign exchange market. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield also rose to 2.78%, adding fiscal pressure. Any actual intervention from Japan's Ministry of Finance would trigger significant volatility across Asian FX and equities.

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📅 Market Updates (22nd June to 26th June 2026)

🏛 Hawkish Fed Hangover — The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in Warsh's debut meeting, but nine of 18 policymakers now pencil in at least one rate hike by end-2026. Markets head into this week still digesting that hawkish pivot and bracing for what comes next.

📊 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) — Wall Street gets a key inflation update this week with the May PCE data, which are expected to show price growth remaining elevated. Consensus preliminary forecasts look for core PCE to edge higher to 3.4%, making Thursday's release the most critical data point of the week.

📈 Flash PMIs in Focus— Tuesday's June flash PMIs will be closely watched for signs of whether economic resilience is holding or beginning to fade after the Fed's hawkish pivot. With the rates market now pricing in a hike as soon as October, any softening in the composite or manufacturing readings could ease rate hike fears.

💵 Dollar Dominates — A strengthening US Dollar is the key signal for the week, fuelled by Fed balance sheet trimming signals, escalating Europe–China trade frictions, and projected US policy strength post-G7. This rising greenback will act as a structural headwind for global commodities and multinational earnings.

🤖 Earnings Spotlight: Micron & FedEx — Micron Technology, one of the hottest stocks of the year, is set to report fiscal Q3 results after Wednesday's close, with the semiconductor stock having surged nearly fourfold year-to-date on a supply-demand imbalance in memory chips. FedEx is also due to report fiscal Q4 earnings after Tuesday's close, with analysts expecting revenue of $24.0 billion, up 8% year over year.

🛢 Oil Steadies Post-Ceasefire — Weekend developments regarding Iran peace negotiations are overriding localized geopolitical noise in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a downward adjustment for crude. Watch whether energy prices stay subdued, a key factor in whether the Fed pauses its hawkish tilt.

🇯🇵 Japan's Soft Yen Play — The Bank of Japan's recent rate hike was met with a weak market response, cementing expectations for a persistently soft yen. This structural advantage is boosting Japanese equities, with the Nikkei 225 projected for a sustained climb this week.

Source: CNBC, AP
Summarized by: Market Quickies by KI (https://tinyurl.com/marketquickies)

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#BTC/USDT UPDATE

BTC is back above the key level, and holding above it would be a positive sign for a potential bounce from here.

The pattern will be invalidated if we get a candle close below $74,910.
$btc

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Market Updates (12th February 2026)

📊 The U.S. labor market added 130,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, more than double the 55,000 jobs expected by the Dow Jones consensus estimate. The better-than-expected report also showed the unemployment rate in January decreased to 4.3%, its lowest level since August.

📊 Job growth in January was better than any month in 2025, but Wednesday’s report still wasn’t all positive. Most of the month’s job growth was concentrated in health care-related fields.

📊 Traders increasingly see the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates steady until at least June, which could have tempered investor enthusiasm.

📊 The House of Representatives last night voted to overturn President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada. Several Republicans joined all but one Democrat to pass the resolution, 219-211, in a symbolic, but likely futile, rebuke of Trump’s keystone economic policy.

📌 McDonald’s beat Wall Street’s fourth-quarter expectations on the top- and bottom-lines yesterday, reporting a nearly 7% boost in domestic same-store sales that it chalked up to popular promotions. The positive results are a sign that the fast-food chain’s focus on value has paid off.

📌 Wall Street is itching for more IPOs out of the tech sector. But for now, they’ll have to wait. Action in tech capital markets is currently focused on debt, as the sector’s hyperscalers race to fund their artificial intelligence buildout plans. A UBS report last month estimated that global tech and AI-related debt issuance could hit $990 billion this year, up from $710 billion in 2025.

📌 Oracle and Alphabet have so far made the biggest corporate debt sales, but Amazon, Meta
and Tesla have indicated they could be not far behind. The prospect of nearly $1 trillion in debt sales, as well as megacap tech’s massive 2026 spending projections, has lit up warning lights for some investors concerned about an AI bubble.

Source: CNBC, AP
Summarized by: Market Quickies (https://t.me/markets_quickies)

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