betting_intel

August 17, 2024, 14:02

Friday fuckery continues

90% of cappers had Reds and Guardians — of course it didn't end well. Brewers was the lock — SME + tHe bEtTiNg qUeEn fade worked perfectly.

Ended up playing White Sox / Astros under 8 — pinch hit homer with 2 outs bottom of the 9th to ruin the under 😂

Half unit donation made ✅ Now onto the Saturday heist. Haven't had a losing weekend in over 2 months (you can check the recaps if you're not lazy because I wouldn't say that if I were lying).

We've got a ton of MLB and UFC on the menu. Sign up 👉 link: https://cappersintel.com/ or message me @realdeal666

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🇺🇸 Cheniere lifts 2026 guidance as LNG cash engine keeps running

Cheniere Energy reported Q3 2026 revenue of US$6.17 billion and net income of US$1.17 billion, raised its full-year 2026 outlook, and increased its quarterly dividend by 12% to US$0.625 per share, payable on November 17, 2026. Updated guidance now points to adjusted EBITDA of US$8.75-9.25 billion and distributable cash flow of US$6.05-6.55 billion for 2026.

The message from management is straightforward: contracted LNG volumes, operating leverage at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi, and progress on brownfield expansion are translating into stronger cash generation. The article also points to new long-term LNG contracts with Petrobras and QatarEnergy as support for future earnings visibility, even as reported profit remains exposed to LNG-linked derivative mark-to-market swings and a federal investigation tied to a US$370 million alternative fuel tax credit.

For the market, the upgraded guidance reinforces the core Cheniere equity case that US liquefaction scale, contracted volumes, and disciplined capital returns still outweigh accounting volatility and regulatory noise.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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🇳🇬 TotalEnergies brings SAPETRO into OPL257 to advance Egina South

TotalEnergies has agreed to farm out a 40% participating interest in Nigeria’s offshore OPL257 to SAPETRO. After closing, TotalEnergies will retain a 50% operated stake, SAPETRO will hold 40%, and Conoil 10%. The block sits about 150 km offshore Nigeria, adjacent to PPL261, and the deal is designed to launch an appraisal campaign on the OPL257 side of the Egina South field in the coming months.

Egina South was discovered in 2005 on PPL261, where TotalEnergies holds 24%, and the field extends across both PPL261 and OPL257. The development concept is straightforward: appraise the resource and, if successful, tie it back to the Egina FPSO located about 30 km away. For TotalEnergies, this is classic infrastructure-led deepwater monetization with lower capex intensity and shorter cycle time; for SAPETRO, it strengthens its position alongside TotalEnergies across the contiguous acreage.

The transaction sharpens the path to a potentially fast-track Nigerian deepwater development by aligning equity around an existing production hub.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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🇺🇸 EQT-Range creates the dominant US gas producer

EQT is acquiring Range Resources in an all-stock transaction that will create the largest natural gas producer in the U.S., with pro forma output above 9 bcfe/d and an enterprise value of more than $50 billion. The combined company will stand 25 percent ahead of its nearest rival, control nearly 3 million net acres, hold more than 30 years of inventory, and own over 3,700 miles of midstream infrastructure.

The logic is scale against a strengthening Appalachian demand story. Range adds a more liquids-rich production mix, with NGLs and oil making up about 30 percent of its output, while EQT brings the balance sheet after cutting net debt from more than $12 billion following the Equitrans deal to $5.5 billion by Q2 2026. Management is targeting $325 million in annual baseline synergies within two years, plus at least $300 million of longer-term development upside, while Range shareholders receive a 21 percent premium and continued exposure to rising gas demand tied to power generation and data centers.

This is less a consolidation trade than a direct bet that Appalachian molecules and integrated infrastructure will capture the next leg of U.S. gas demand growth.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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🇰🇿 Exxon blocks Kashagan settlement proposal over Kazakhstan's $5 billion fine

ExxonMobil blocked a proposal by partners in Kazakhstan's Kashagan oil field to settle with the government over a disputed $5 billion environmental fine, according to a report published Friday citing people familiar with the matter. The dispute centers on one of Kazakhstan's flagship upstream assets, where the consortium now appears divided over how to handle the state's claim.

For the market, this points to continuing legal and political friction around Kashagan rather than a clean resolution. A blocked settlement does not automatically imply operational disruption, but it does extend uncertainty around partner-state relations at a strategically important crude project and keeps fiscal and regulatory risk firmly in view for Kazakhstan.

The immediate signal is not barrels off the market, but higher above-ground risk around one of the Caspian's key oil developments.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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🇨🇦 Shell to take 30% stake in Equinor's Bay du Nord oil project in Canada

Equinor and Shell have signed an agreement under which Shell will acquire a 30% interest in the Bay du Nord project offshore Newfoundland and Labrador in Canada, the companies said on Friday. The transaction brings a second major into one of Canada’s most closely watched offshore oil developments and materially changes the partner structure around Bay du Nord.

The immediate read-through is strategic rather than near-term supply-related. A farm-in by Shell is a vote of confidence in the project’s commercial resilience and execution pathway, especially for a frontier offshore development that has faced a long and closely scrutinized route to sanction. For the market, this does not change prompt crude balances, but it does strengthen the case for future Atlantic Basin offshore barrels tied to Canada’s east coast export optionality.

The signal is that large-cap oil is still willing to back long-cycle offshore projects where scale and portfolio fit justify the risk.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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🇺🇸 Valero brings shuttered Houston refining capacity back into the Gulf Coast system

Valero Refining-Texas will acquire the former LyondellBasell Houston refinery for $320.5 million and plans to restart 165,000 b/d of light sweet crude processing by yearend 2027. The deal includes about 700 acres on the Houston Ship Channel next to Valero’s Houston refinery, 13.5 million bbl of storage, plus marine docks, rail-loading facilities, and truck racks. Closing is expected by yearend, subject to customary conditions.

The strategic logic is less about nameplate refining capacity and more about feedstock integration. Valero says the asset will help ease intermediate feedstock shortages across its US Gulf Coast system, cut reliance on third-party purchases, and create room to optimize logistics and refinery-to-refinery flows. Incremental FCC and hydrocracker feed production should reduce external sourcing, while excess hydrotreating capacity can be used to upgrade intermediates from other Valero Gulf Coast plants. The site may also support future investment in heavy sour crude processing, according to CEO Lane Riggs, although no timetable or capital plan was disclosed.

For the Gulf Coast market, this is a low-cost brownfield bet on restoring optionality in a region where logistics, conversion capacity, and intermediate streams increasingly matter as much as crude throughput itself.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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ExxonMobil deepens LNG exposure in Mozambique and Papua New Guinea as upstream growth shifts to Guyana

ExxonMobil said on Oct. 30 it agreed to raise its working interest in Rovuma LNG in Mozambique to 50% and in Papua LNG in Papua New Guinea to 34%. The company already operates Rovuma and has now assumed operatorship at Papua LNG. Counterparties and deal terms were not disclosed. In the same third-quarter 2026 update, Exxon reported cumulative production milestones of 1 billion barrels in Guyana and at Kearl in Canada, plus 100 million tons at PNG LNG. Third-quarter upstream production averaged 4.496 MMboed, down slightly from 4.514 MMboed in the second quarter.

The portfolio message is clear: Exxon is increasing control over long-cycle LNG positions while Guyana remains the main earnings engine. The company said year-to-date upstream earnings were lifted by volume growth in Guyana, the Permian and Golden Pass LNG, partly offset by Middle East volume impacts. Versus the second quarter, upstream earnings fell on lower prices and an accelerated Guyana entitlement impact. Third-quarter earnings still came in at $15.4 billion, with $20 billion of share repurchases planned for 2027.

Exxon is using Guyana cash flow to consolidate operatorship and equity in the next wave of LNG supply, tightening its grip on two strategic Pacific and African export projects.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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🇯🇵 Japan to Overtake China As World's Top LNG Importer This Year

Japan is set to overtake China as the world’s top LNG importer this year, according to ICIS and Kpler. The shift is being driven by weaker Chinese buying as high prices and full storage reduce import appetite, opening the way for Japan to reclaim the top spot in global LNG demand.

The immediate market read is not that Japanese demand is surging aggressively, but that Chinese spot demand has softened enough to change the global ranking. For LNG trade flows, that matters: when China steps back because inventories are comfortable and prices are too high, fewer discretionary cargoes are pulled into North Asia, easing competition for spot supply and tempering upside pressure on benchmark LNG prices.

The signal for the market is clear: China remains the key swing buyer in LNG, and when full storage meets high prices, the demand response is strong enough to reshape the global import league table.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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European Gas Tops 101 Euros for First Time Since 2022

European gas prices moved above 101 euros per MWh for the first time since 2022, even with storage near 75%. The immediate trigger in the available facts is the continuing force majeure affecting Qatari LNG, which is tightening supply expectations into a market that would normally take some comfort from relatively high inventory levels.

The price action matters because it shows storage alone is not capping risk when prompt LNG availability is in question. If Qatari disruptions persist, Europe has to compete harder for marginal cargoes, supporting TTF and reinforcing volatility across power, industrial gas demand, and LNG trading books. With inventories still below full and winter optionality carrying a premium, the market is repricing security of supply rather than headline storage percentages.

The signal is straightforward: as long as Qatari LNG force majeure remains unresolved, European gas will stay highly sensitive to any additional supply shock.

🔎 Source

@songofoil

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