QCP Broadcast
https://linktr.ee/qcpgroup
- 24 часа
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- 7 дней
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- 30 дней
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- Реакции
- 5
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Подписчиков у канала «QCP Broadcast»: 13 352.
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Время по UTC. 20 постов за 90 дней.
Последние посты
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QCP Macro Themes, 11 November 2026 Trump will hold off new strikes on Iran but keep the blockade. After meeting Qatar’s PM on 9 Nov he paused “for now”; positions remain far apart, no deal. Brent settled at $92.57/bbl (−5.85%) and slipped further after, ~18% below its 30 Oct level. Two hikes, two readings. The RBA lifted to 4.85% (6–3) but dropped its “further if needed” bias; the BoE hiked 8–1 to 4.00%. Canada and Japan held, but pricing still dropped: BoC jobs −4.7k vs +14k expected, and BoJ with Nikkei −6.0%, JGB 2Y −12.8bp. AI took a political turn. Democrats won both chambers and five governorships; 59% of planned US data-centre capacity now faces new restrictions or higher hurdles....
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QCP Market Colour, 6 November 2026 Democrats secured both the House and the Senate, shifting the balance of power for the final two years of Trump’s term. The Senate stands at 54-44 per the latest figures, with at least seven flips (Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Maine, North Carolina and South Carolina), and the House at 253-155. The Democrats’ priorities could include ending Trump’s global tariffs, new war powers votes and investigations into Trump family business dealings. Short of a two-thirds majority they cannot overturn a veto, so expect a lame-duck stand-off. We also expect permitting delays, large-load tariffs on data centres and fewer tax breaks, which could be damaging to the AI bui...
1 910 просмотров 3 Реакции -
QCP Market Colour, 2 November 2026 The $80,000 floor gave way last week, but the break was orderly for a day that followed a $6.3bn Binance exploit, including 18,270 BTC. BTC slid to $76,141 on Friday, its lowest since 17 September, and the $76,000–$76,600 band held, turning price for the fourth time. October still closed down 7.3%. BTC is near $78,500 in Asia this morning. Binance's recovery is on track so far: withdrawals reopened across 15 networks, with a net outflow of $3.64bn, about 2.1% of assets. It says 95% of stolen funds are covered, though its full proof of reserves has slipped to Tuesday. The attacker still holds the BTC and is splitting it into 1,000 and 100 BTC pieces. Spot...
2 480 просмотров 6 Реакции -
QCP Market Colour, 30 October 2026 The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75–4.00% by 10–2 vote; Warsh declined to pre-commit to December action. The Committee announced one 2027 meeting and two 2028 meetings will have no rate votes, used only for strategy. Fewer decision points mean more data accumulates between decisions, potentially increasing rates volatility and term premiums. The ECB held unchanged; markets pricing December hike. The BOJ held steady after announcing inflation hit 2% target; markets pricing December hike. Central banks maintaining optionality as credit concerns persist. Technology earnings disappointed. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Intel all declined post-earnings on pro...
2 430 просмотров 6 Реакции -
QCP Macro Themes, 29 October 2026 Iran talks stalled before midterms as shipping attacks hit 28 in October—war's highest monthly total. Protected transits kept exports near prewar levels, but White House ruled out a pre-election strike, pushing deal pressure beyond the election. Real yields drove the bond rally as growth fears beat oil with US 10Y real down 31bp. France's OAT-Bund hit 175bp on 22 October, widest since 2011, signaling rotational pressure away from peripheral duration. Tech valuations diverging. SOXX drawn $12.4bn since 1 July while QQQ shed $4.7bn on semis rotation as AI capex turns concrete. CoreWeave CDS at 1,121bps (3.7x Oracle's 304bps) reflects financing concerns in m...
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QCP Market Colour, 26 October 2026 BTC broke below $80k over the weekend as Middle East headlines and ETF outflows forced out leveraged longs. Price now sits at the bottom of its recent range into the 27-28 October FOMC. Hyperscaler earnings are the swing factor. Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday US time, Amazon on Thursday. Results that justify the spend could mark the re-rating; results that don’t extend the AI unwind. Oil, down about 2%, is the second driver after the US cut staff at Middle East embassies. The Fed is expected to hold, but December hike odds sit near 84%, so Chair Warsh’s press conference matters. The 10-year is around 4.96%, off a one-year high near 5.3%. BTC su...
2 360 просмотров 5 Реакции -
QCP Market Colour, 23 October 2026 CoreWeave bonds hitting 15% YTM as credit stress spreads across AI infrastructure. The repricing extended beyond CoreWeave to broader neocloudinfrastructure, triggering selloffs in equities and cryptocurrency. Flight-to-quality drove longer-dated US Treasury yields lower despite credit concerns. CoreWeave fell 10% October 22 on cost-of-capital worries. Tesla adjusted forward capex lower, adding to AI profitability concerns across the technology sector. Elevated financing costs are constraining capital allocation and expected return profiles for infrastructure projects. Eurozone dynamics shifted notably: 10-year OATs hit 5% on October 22, exceeding 5.1%,...
2 560 просмотров 7 Реакции -
QCP Macro Themes, 22 October 2026 Hormuz talks stalled as Tehran's conditions remained unmet and Saudi-Houthi strikes widened the front. Physical flows near zero on AIS, but dark-ship estimates put 3.7–13 mb/d through the strait. SPR sits at 283.0m barrels, down 30.5% YoY. Credit markets diverging on AI financing stress. CoreWeave's CDS at 1,128bps, 3x Oracle's 300bps, as debt-to-revenue hits 162% versus Oracle's 4.7x coverage. Broadcom's $50.1bn issuance shows strength (FY25 leverage 1.93x), but tech credit spread widening. KOSPI crashed 14.5% (worst since Oct 2008) as chip selling accelerated by foreign outflows ₩11.24tn and margin stress amplified losses. Samsung and SK hynix each fell...
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QCP Market Colour, 19 October 2026 Bitcoin remained confined to $80–$83k last week with strong support at the $80k level. Its resilience contrasts with continued pressure on technology stocks. CoreWeave’s 5Y CDS widened beyond 1,100bps, underscoring debt-funded AI concerns pressuring semiconductors. Hot CPI initially pushed 2Y yields to 4.9% and 10Y above 5.3%. Defensive demand drove yields lower. Thursday’s strong PPI failed to sustain the selloff. Warsh’s Friday remarks cut October hike odds to 15% from sub-30% earlier in the week. The yield retreat helped support BTC’s recovery. Investors rotated from semiconductors to healthcare and banks. The FTSE outperformed US tech. Renewed Treasu...
2 520 просмотров 6 Реакции -
QCP Market Colour, 16 October 2026 September CPI printed hotter than expected: 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y (vs 0.6% and 3.6% consensus), with core at 2.6% y/y (vs 2.5%) and monthly core at 0.3%. The inflation data was firm across the board. Yet Treasury yields declined sharply as market participants reassessed risk dynamics. The 10-year peaked at 5.35% and the 30-year at 5.73% before reversing lower—a clear flight-to-quality dynamic overrode the inflation signal. The catalyst: AI credit stress. CoreWeave closed down 15.5%, with 5Y CDS hitting 60%—significantly elevated default risk. The NASDAQ and KOSPI fell as participants digested infrastructure sector stress. This is not a minor name; CoreWea...
2 400 просмотров 6 Реакции
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QCP Market Colour, 23 October 2026 CoreWeave bonds hitting 15% YTM as credit stress spreads across AI infrastructure. The repricing extended beyond CoreWeave to broader neocloudinfrastructure, triggering selloffs in equities and cryptocurrency. Flight-to-quality drove longer-dated US Treasury yields lower despite credit concerns. CoreWeave fell 10% October 22 on cost-of-capital worries. Tesla adjusted forward capex lower, adding to AI profitability concerns across the technology sector. Elevated financing costs are constraining capital allocation and expected return profiles for infrastructure projects. Eurozone dynamics shifted notably: 10-year OATs hit 5% on October 22, exceeding 5.1%,...
2 560 просмотров 7 Реакции -
QCP Market Colour, 19 October 2026 Bitcoin remained confined to $80–$83k last week with strong support at the $80k level. Its resilience contrasts with continued pressure on technology stocks. CoreWeave’s 5Y CDS widened beyond 1,100bps, underscoring debt-funded AI concerns pressuring semiconductors. Hot CPI initially pushed 2Y yields to 4.9% and 10Y above 5.3%. Defensive demand drove yields lower. Thursday’s strong PPI failed to sustain the selloff. Warsh’s Friday remarks cut October hike odds to 15% from sub-30% earlier in the week. The yield retreat helped support BTC’s recovery. Investors rotated from semiconductors to healthcare and banks. The FTSE outperformed US tech. Renewed Treasu...
2 520 просмотров 6 Реакции -
QCP Market Colour, 2 November 2026 The $80,000 floor gave way last week, but the break was orderly for a day that followed a $6.3bn Binance exploit, including 18,270 BTC. BTC slid to $76,141 on Friday, its lowest since 17 September, and the $76,000–$76,600 band held, turning price for the fourth time. October still closed down 7.3%. BTC is near $78,500 in Asia this morning. Binance's recovery is on track so far: withdrawals reopened across 15 networks, with a net outflow of $3.64bn, about 2.1% of assets. It says 95% of stolen funds are covered, though its full proof of reserves has slipped to Tuesday. The attacker still holds the BTC and is splitting it into 1,000 and 100 BTC pieces. Spot...
2 480 просмотров 6 Реакции -
QCP Market Colour, 30 October 2026 The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75–4.00% by 10–2 vote; Warsh declined to pre-commit to December action. The Committee announced one 2027 meeting and two 2028 meetings will have no rate votes, used only for strategy. Fewer decision points mean more data accumulates between decisions, potentially increasing rates volatility and term premiums. The ECB held unchanged; markets pricing December hike. The BOJ held steady after announcing inflation hit 2% target; markets pricing December hike. Central banks maintaining optionality as credit concerns persist. Technology earnings disappointed. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Intel all declined post-earnings on pro...
2 430 просмотров 6 Реакции -
QCP Macro Themes, 22 October 2026 Hormuz talks stalled as Tehran's conditions remained unmet and Saudi-Houthi strikes widened the front. Physical flows near zero on AIS, but dark-ship estimates put 3.7–13 mb/d through the strait. SPR sits at 283.0m barrels, down 30.5% YoY. Credit markets diverging on AI financing stress. CoreWeave's CDS at 1,128bps, 3x Oracle's 300bps, as debt-to-revenue hits 162% versus Oracle's 4.7x coverage. Broadcom's $50.1bn issuance shows strength (FY25 leverage 1.93x), but tech credit spread widening. KOSPI crashed 14.5% (worst since Oct 2008) as chip selling accelerated by foreign outflows ₩11.24tn and margin stress amplified losses. Samsung and SK hynix each fell...
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QCP Market Colour, 16 October 2026 September CPI printed hotter than expected: 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y (vs 0.6% and 3.6% consensus), with core at 2.6% y/y (vs 2.5%) and monthly core at 0.3%. The inflation data was firm across the board. Yet Treasury yields declined sharply as market participants reassessed risk dynamics. The 10-year peaked at 5.35% and the 30-year at 5.73% before reversing lower—a clear flight-to-quality dynamic overrode the inflation signal. The catalyst: AI credit stress. CoreWeave closed down 15.5%, with 5Y CDS hitting 60%—significantly elevated default risk. The NASDAQ and KOSPI fell as participants digested infrastructure sector stress. This is not a minor name; CoreWea...
2 400 просмотров 6 Реакции -
QCP Market Colour, 26 October 2026 BTC broke below $80k over the weekend as Middle East headlines and ETF outflows forced out leveraged longs. Price now sits at the bottom of its recent range into the 27-28 October FOMC. Hyperscaler earnings are the swing factor. Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday US time, Amazon on Thursday. Results that justify the spend could mark the re-rating; results that don’t extend the AI unwind. Oil, down about 2%, is the second driver after the US cut staff at Middle East embassies. The Fed is expected to hold, but December hike odds sit near 84%, so Chair Warsh’s press conference matters. The 10-year is around 4.96%, off a one-year high near 5.3%. BTC su...
2 360 просмотров 5 Реакции -
QCP Macro Themes, 15 October 2026 Escalation widened as Houthis struck Riyadh airport (Oct 10–11), with Iran reviewing the US response via Qatar. Hormuz collapsed to 1 crossing (avg 26) and the SPR is down 30.5% YoY to 283.0m barrels—critical supply squeeze. Democrats hold 62–63% odds to sweep Congress 3 November; the Senate is the swing race. A full sweep raises gridlock risk for Trump. France's fiscal credibility under pressure: OAT-Bund 152bp, debt 119% GDP, growth 0.4%. Credit repricing accelerating. Oracle CDS 251.9bps, nearly 2x AVGO (132.6bps). OpenAI's ARR gap ($50B vs $70B target) signals tensions as Q3 earnings peak 26 Oct. BTC momentum fading as STRC buybacks ($192.4m) outweigh...
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QCP Macro Themes, 29 October 2026 Iran talks stalled before midterms as shipping attacks hit 28 in October—war's highest monthly total. Protected transits kept exports near prewar levels, but White House ruled out a pre-election strike, pushing deal pressure beyond the election. Real yields drove the bond rally as growth fears beat oil with US 10Y real down 31bp. France's OAT-Bund hit 175bp on 22 October, widest since 2011, signaling rotational pressure away from peripheral duration. Tech valuations diverging. SOXX drawn $12.4bn since 1 July while QQQ shed $4.7bn on semis rotation as AI capex turns concrete. CoreWeave CDS at 1,121bps (3.7x Oracle's 304bps) reflects financing concerns in m...
-
QCP Market Colour, 6 November 2026 Democrats secured both the House and the Senate, shifting the balance of power for the final two years of Trump’s term. The Senate stands at 54-44 per the latest figures, with at least seven flips (Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Maine, North Carolina and South Carolina), and the House at 253-155. The Democrats’ priorities could include ending Trump’s global tariffs, new war powers votes and investigations into Trump family business dealings. Short of a two-thirds majority they cannot overturn a veto, so expect a lame-duck stand-off. We also expect permitting delays, large-load tariffs on data centres and fewer tax breaks, which could be damaging to the AI bui...
1 910 просмотров 3 Реакции
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Сколько подписчиков у канала «QCP Broadcast»?
У канала «QCP Broadcast» (@qcpbroadcast) 13 352 подписчика на 12 ноября 2026 г.
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Канал в категории «Криптовалюты», язык постов: английский. Описание канала: «https://linktr.ee/qcpgroup»
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За последние 30 дней ни один из 11 постов не помечен как реклама (#ad, Sponsored, «Реклама»). Рекламу без пометки определить нельзя.
Когда публикует канал «QCP Broadcast»?
Пик публикаций: понедельник, около 10:00 по UTC. Выходит около 3 постов в неделю.
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