Dissident Thoughts
- №262 в категории «Экономика и финансы»
- №5 869 среди международных каналов
- №8 811 среди каналов на языке «английский»
- №9 883 в мире
Financials advices only if you make money
- 24 часа
- +1
- 7 дней
- –
- 30 дней
- –
- Реакции
- 4
- Репосты
- –
- Комментарии
- –
Динамика подписчиков
Подписчиков у канала «Dissident Thoughts»: 754.
По дням, последние 30 дней
| Дата | Подписчики | Изменение | Посты | Ср. просмотры поста |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 ноя | 754 | +1 | 0 | – |
| 11 ноя | 753 | −1 | 1 | 194 |
| 10 ноя | 754 | +2 | 0 | – |
| 9 ноя | 752 | +12 | 1 | 431 |
| 20 окт | 740 | – | 0 | – |
Когда публикует
Время по UTC. 21 пост за 90 дней.
Последние посты
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Don’t be mislead by the NVDA Chinese honeytrap.
194 просмотров 10 Реакции -
Net positioning remains defensive as market participants have substantially deleveraged. In this environment, driving a sustained leg lower would require a severe fundamental catalyst. Conversely, an inline or soft CPI print would further de-risk the December FOMC meeting by diminishing rate-hike probabilities, providing the necessary dry powder for a relief rally.
431 просмотров 1 Реакции -
After presidential elections, the market's initial move has tended to continue over the following three months. After midterms, it has told us little: stocks rose in nearly 9 out of 10 cases over the next three months, gaining about 6% on average.
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Local bottom Qqq will underperform spx
755 просмотров 6 Реакции -
Friendly reminder
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As the U.S. midterm elections approach, market positioning is being heavily shaped by a structural nuance in options flow: hedging is currently concentrated at the index. Two paths : 1. The "Better-Than-Feared" Scenario (Divided Congress / Republican Senate) - With heavy short positioning and index-level hedges in place, a relief rally would force a rapid unwinding of index puts. - Expect the main indices to significantly outperform the single-stock average, driven by broad index short-covering and a powerful short squeeze. 2. The Democratic "Clean Sweep" Scenario (Senate + House) - Because portfolios are poorly hedged at the individual stock level, single-stock downside is underprotecte...
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Following recent volatility in the AI trade and a historic rotation toward defensive sectors, the BofA Bubble Risk Indicators (BRI) for US Healthcare (Hcare) and Consumer Staples (Staples) have been pushed toward bubble-risk levels, with indicators crossing or approaching the extreme bubble threshold. To capitalize on this dynamic, we propose relative value options trades designed to hedge high BRI defensive sectors against secular tech exposure: - XLP vs. XLK Strategy: Buy XLP Nov 85 puts while selling an equal notional of XLK Nov 175 puts for a 0.23% credit (indicatively -25d strikes; 2.1:1 contracts; reference prices: 87.21, 185.96). - XLV vs. XLK Strategy: Buy XLV Nov 170 puts while se...
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Фото
Смотреть в Telegram
530 просмотров
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Фото
Смотреть в Telegram
471 просмотров
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Buy the Dip strategy (upgrade from a JPM one) A) Trigger Signal (The Alert) => Condition: The S&P 500 closes at least 5% below its highest close of the last 3 months (63 trading days). => Validation Filter (checked on the first day of the signal): Look at the 5-day performance (return 5). If ret5 is above -2.5%: Episode accepted, the buying cycle begins. If ret5 is -2.5% or lower: Episode rejected, the entire cycle is canceled. B) Execution (Taking Positions) - When to buy: At the market open on the day following the signal. - Frequency: Enter 1 trade every day as long as the S&P 500 stays below the -5% threshold. - End of cycle: Stop buying once the index closes 5 consecutive sessions bac...
636 просмотров Фото
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As the U.S. midterm elections approach, market positioning is being heavily shaped by a structural nuance in options flow: hedging is currently concentrated at the index. Two paths : 1. The "Better-Than-Feared" Scenario (Divided Congress / Republican Senate) - With heavy short positioning and index-level hedges in place, a relief rally would force a rapid unwinding of index puts. - Expect the main indices to significantly outperform the single-stock average, driven by broad index short-covering and a powerful short squeeze. 2. The Democratic "Clean Sweep" Scenario (Senate + House) - Because portfolios are poorly hedged at the individual stock level, single-stock downside is underprotecte...
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Friendly reminder
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Don’t be too much bearish on tech Qqq is at support level, positioning is bearish. Earnings are coming
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Local bottom Qqq will underperform spx
755 просмотров 6 Реакции -
When the VIX reaches a new high but the SPX holds up, you can start looking for a market bottom.
719 просмотров 9 Реакции -
Buy the Dip strategy (upgrade from a JPM one) A) Trigger Signal (The Alert) => Condition: The S&P 500 closes at least 5% below its highest close of the last 3 months (63 trading days). => Validation Filter (checked on the first day of the signal): Look at the 5-day performance (return 5). If ret5 is above -2.5%: Episode accepted, the buying cycle begins. If ret5 is -2.5% or lower: Episode rejected, the entire cycle is canceled. B) Execution (Taking Positions) - When to buy: At the market open on the day following the signal. - Frequency: Enter 1 trade every day as long as the S&P 500 stays below the -5% threshold. - End of cycle: Stop buying once the index closes 5 consecutive sessions bac...
636 просмотров Фото -
After presidential elections, the market's initial move has tended to continue over the following three months. After midterms, it has told us little: stocks rose in nearly 9 out of 10 cases over the next three months, gaining about 6% on average.
-
Фото
Смотреть в Telegram
530 просмотров
-
Following recent volatility in the AI trade and a historic rotation toward defensive sectors, the BofA Bubble Risk Indicators (BRI) for US Healthcare (Hcare) and Consumer Staples (Staples) have been pushed toward bubble-risk levels, with indicators crossing or approaching the extreme bubble threshold. To capitalize on this dynamic, we propose relative value options trades designed to hedge high BRI defensive sectors against secular tech exposure: - XLP vs. XLK Strategy: Buy XLP Nov 85 puts while selling an equal notional of XLK Nov 175 puts for a 0.23% credit (indicatively -25d strikes; 2.1:1 contracts; reference prices: 87.21, 185.96). - XLV vs. XLK Strategy: Buy XLV Nov 170 puts while se...
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Фото
Смотреть в Telegram
471 просмотров
Вопросы о канале «Dissident Thoughts»
Сколько подписчиков у канала «Dissident Thoughts»?
У канала «Dissident Thoughts» (@dissidentthoughts) 754 подписчика на 12 ноября 2026 г.
О чём канал «Dissident Thoughts»?
Канал в категории «Экономика и финансы», язык постов: английский. Описание канала: «Financials advices only if you make money»
Какое место занимает канал «Dissident Thoughts»?
По числу подписчиков: №262 в категории «Экономика и финансы», №5 869 среди международных каналов, №8 811 среди каналов на языке «английский», №9 883 в мире.
Публикует ли канал «Dissident Thoughts» рекламу?
За последние 30 дней ни один из 12 постов не помечен как реклама (#ad, Sponsored, «Реклама»). Рекламу без пометки определить нельзя.
Когда публикует канал «Dissident Thoughts»?
Пик публикаций: воскресенье, около 20:00 по UTC. Выходит около 3 постов в неделю.
Статистика обновлена 1 час назад.